Russia population shrinks to 143 million
Friday, October 21, 2005
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
MOSCOW -- Russia's population has shrunk by more than half a million people this
year, dipping to 143 million, the federal statistics agency said Friday.
Russia's population - the largest in Europe - has been declining steadily since
the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, with increased poverty, alcoholism,
emigration and degradation of the health care system blamed for reducing birth
rates and life expectancy.
Since the beginning of the year, the population went down by 506,400, the agency
said on its Web site.
United Nations experts have urged Russian authorities to boost social spending
to improve health care and prevent the population decline.
In a United Nations Development Program report released this week, demographers
predicted that Russia's population will fall to 100 million by 2050, and could
even drop to 80 million.
The UN urged Russian authorities to change its strict immigration policy to
provide incentives for educated, skilled migrants from former Soviet republics
and other countries to move to Russia.
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Russian villages empty as population collapses
Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:14 AM ET
By Oliver Bullough
© Reuters 2005.
POLUKARPOVO, Russia (Reuters) - On Moscow's crowded streets you would never
sense Russia had a population crisis. But go to Polukarpovo -- or thousands of
villages like it -- and the emptiness hits you.
As the mobile shop made its twice-weekly visit, the village's inhabitants
gathered -- three pensioners, a young woman and two boys -- on a dirt track
lined with boarded-up log cabins.
The faint calls of a giant V of geese flying south high overhead and the rustle
of falling leaves barely disturbed the silence.
"There used to be a family in every house, probably 30 families. Now there's
just us. No one helps us. No one pays attention to us any more," said Vera
Malchanova, 58, wrapped up against the autumn chill as she came to buy bread.
Villages such as Polukarpovo, which is halfway between Moscow and St Petersburg,
line Russia's country roads -- mute and rotting witnesses to a population
collapse that is eating out the heart of the world's biggest country.
In particular, a rising death rate among adult males is hitting both the pool of
army conscripts and the size of the workforce, forcing a revision of military
and economic planning in decades to come.
A climbing mortality rate will see Russia's population fall by some 790,000 --
the number of people in Cyprus or South Dakota -- out of 143 million total over
the next year.
DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS
Many Western nations are seeing declining populations as well, but the Russian
population is falling much faster. It is driven above all by a high death rate,
rather than fewer births or emigration, said Anatoly Vishnevsky, head of
Russia's Center of Demography and Human Ecology.
His institute, based in a tower block in southern Moscow, has a Web site that
keeps a running total of Russia's population. Refresh
www.demoscope.ru every few
minutes and you can watch the population fall in real time.
"One of the main reasons is the high mortality of adult men," he told Reuters.
"Child mortality is higher than in the West but the trend is positive. But adult
mortality is rising. And in recent times the level of female mortality has
started rising faster than for men."
"If you look at how long a 30-year-old man can be expected to live, there is
basically no change since the beginning of the 20th century."
Russian consumption of vodka is legendary and alcohol poisoning killed 39,000
Russians last year. Additionally, it is seen as a key cause of the 39,000 deaths
in traffic accidents, the 36,000 murders and the 46,000 suicides.
"You have to ask why people drink so much. Here there are cultural and
historical roots, but in general it comes from the unfortunate social
situation," said Vishnevsky.
"A major difference (between Russia and the West) is death from external causes
-- murder, accidents, and so on. These are healthy people, but often they are
drunk and they are not showing care for their own life."
Some officials have suggested payments to young mothers and tighter control on
alcohol sales as measures to halt the crisis, but analysts say their response
will necessarily be limited by ordinary Russians' opposition to living
healthily.
"Above all, of course, we need to think of ensuring social and economic
stability in the country," said President Vladimir Putin in an address to the
nation last month, in which he stressed the need to reduce deaths among
working-age adults.
"Drunkenness, drugs, deaths at work, traffic accidents, a health system not
being organized the way it should be ... all of this together creates our
problems."
CONSCRIPTION AGE
The population collapse must drastically alter military and economic planning,
since the rise in deaths has gone together with a fall in births as experienced
in the rest of Europe.
The number of Russian men of conscription age will fall by nearly 40 percent to
1.4 million in 20 years.
Forecasters predict Russia's lengthy borders will have fewer than a million
young men to defend them by 2050 -- less than half those eligible for
conscription now.
The work force will peak in the next few years and then drop by 20 million from
the present 85 million by the middle of the century.
Vishnevsky said there was little the government could do about it because of the
lack of pressure for healthy living, citing the case of former Soviet President
Mikhail Gorbachev, whose attempt to ban alcohol was a major cause of his
unpopularity.
"Fighting against drinking and smoking is not happening here as it is in the
West. No politician will do this because the people will not support such a
campaign," he said.
And in Polukarpovo, the villagers doubted their demoralized
and impoverished neighbors had the resources to drag themselves up from the
general depression on their own.
"When the men do not work, they begin to drink. And when they drink, they can't
work," said Boris Andreyev, 60, as he gloomily watched a kitten playing in the
dust of the road.
"That is our younger generation. There it is see, playing with that leaf," he
said with a sad smile, before tucking his loaf of bread under his arm and
returning to his nine sheep.
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